Equity

Mean Reversion

Definition

The statistical theory that asset prices, volatility, and returns eventually revert back toward their long-term historical average after periods of extreme deviation in either direction.

Example
Mean reversion traders bet on overextended prices returning to normal — e.g., buying oversold stocks after extreme drops.
Frequently Asked Question
What is Mean Reversion?
Mean reversion holds that prices and volatility tend to revert to their historical average over time. Strategies include buying oversold assets and selling overbought ones. VIX is a classic mean-reverting asset.
APA Citation
Clark, R. (2025). Mean Reversion. VixShield Trading Glossary. Retrieved from https://www.vixshield.com/glossary/mean-reversion
RC
Russell Clark, FNP-C
Author of SPX Mastery series · Founder of VixShield
Last updated:  ·  Source: VixShield Trading Glossary — From SPX Mastery by Russell Clark
⚠️ Not financial advice. This definition is educational content from the SPX Mastery book series by Russell Clark (VixShield). Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading options involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Always paper trade before risking real capital.
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Real questions answered using the Mean Reversion framework — click any to read the full answer:

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What are the implications of Jane Street reporting $15.5 billion in Q4 revenue, which doubled prior quarters and matched the combined markets businesses of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs while exceeding HRT and Citadel Securities by 4x?
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I have developed an options strategy where I purchase calls on stocks exhibiting unusually low implied volatility relative to their historical levels, as indicated by a low IV rank. The approach involves buying these calls with 20 to 30 days to expiration at a modest premium per trade, then exiting when implied volatility expands toward its historical mean or when the underlying stock rises to capture intrinsic value. This setup offers two potential paths to profitability. However, I recognize that without a specific catalyst, the strategy largely relies on implied volatility mean reversion, which can be slow and uncertain. I am currently refining strike selection by shifting toward at-the-money options for higher vega exposure and considering longer dated expirations to mitigate theta decay. Since I cannot utilize a margin account and am unwilling to sell calls or puts, what similar approaches have others explored? How do you identify securities where implied volatility is likely to expand? What key elements might I be overlooking?
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If a cryptocurrency project burns 10 percent of its total supply, how can traders model the realistic price impact?
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How does a hot CPI print typically affect USD pairs in the short term? What approaches do traders use to capitalize on the market reaction?
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